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Prediction market operators are on legal losing streaks, confirming that Beynon is onto something when he says the regulatory environment is the biggest risk facing the industry.
“We continue to view regulation as the largest risk to prediction markets,” says the analyst. “While industry growth remains robust, adverse legal outcomes could materially impact sports contract availability and long-term adoption.”
Amid a string of losses in federal appellate courts, it appears increasingly prediction markets are angling to take their cases to the U.S. Supreme Court, banking that the high court will allow them to continue offering sports event contracts free of state gambling regulations.
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“Publicly traded valuations are a reflection of the current interest rate environment,” Chad Beynon, lead gaming analyst for Macquarie, told iGB. “Whether it’s a long-term financial model on a growth company, you’re going to discount that back at a higher rate, or if it’s just a standard four-wall business, the cash flows in a higher interest rate environment are worth less.”
According to data from Yahoo Finance, the resort and casino sector is -41% over the last five years, and the overall gambling sector, which includes major sportsbooks and online operators, is +7%; the benchmark S&P 500 index, by comparison, is +71% during that span.
Two blockbuster developments in the casino space earlier this year seemed to indicate an increasingly bullish bet on the sector, including Fertitta Entertainment’s acquisition of Caesars Entertainment in May. The other is a subsequent takeover offer of MGM Resorts from its largest shareholder, Barry Diller’s People Inc. But a negative shift in market conditions could affect both deals.
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This clash between two teams who were embroiled in one of the most controversial games in football will be very interesting now that it’s in the Premier League.
If you’ve forgotten, Leeds and Villa played out a sensational match a couple of years ago in the Championship as Leeds scored by illegitimate means then were supposed to be letting Aston Villa score in response until Pontus Janssen didn’t read the memo.
Both sides are in decent form in general in the Premier League having returned in consecutive years. Aston Villa stayed up by the skin of their teeth in the 2019/20 season, but have kicked on under Dean Smith and in Grealish, Watkins and Traore, have some of the most dangerous attacking players in the Premier League.