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Investors began 2026 expecting multiple rate cuts, which tend to juice capital markets and spur dealmaking activity. But on 28 February things changed quickly after joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran largely curtailed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital Middle East waterway where some 20% of the world’s oil transited before the conflict began.
Several factors weighed heavily on the decision to raise rates. The average nationwide gas price now is $4.36 compared to $3.18 a year ago, per AAA, and the average diesel price of $6.31 is a record. Brent crude oil has crested over $100 per barrel compared to about $68 a year ago. Inflation was 3.4% in August, compared to 2.9% last year. And US 10-, 20- and 30-year Treasuries have reached their highest rates in decades.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh assumed the top role in May, and the central bank held rates steady for all of Warsh’s first three meetings. The decision to stand pat at the start of Warsh’s tenure came despite increasing calls for a hike as inflation remains solidly above the Fed’s 2% target. Those calls became too loud to ignore, prompting the first rate hike since August 2023.
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When I joined CalvinAyre.com in August of 2009, there was an enormous gap in the industry for an honest, transparent news site with regular, fresh video content. Over time, we grew from a tiny team of a handful of people to dozens, providing the industry with the juiciest breaking news and cutting-edge video coverage.
Today we pass on the torch to our event organizing and media production friends who have more recently developed outstanding news coverage and video teams dedicated to the gaming space, hopefully who I’ll be seeing at CoinGeek Conferences in the future.
Reflecting on my fateful words at EiG back in 2013, it was the entrepreneurial energy, the innovation and the excitement surrounding Bitcoin that originally drew me to it. Back then, the obsession about Bitcoin was not related to price, it was about the disruptive technology and this is what meant something to me. While a great deal has changed in Bitcoin between 2013 and now, the energy, innovation and excitement are all still there and I am looking forward to the next chapter of my career with Calvin Ayre and the Ayre Media team.
About Neon Dice
Prediction market volume could soar to $10 trillion per year by 2035, compounding at a staggering annual rate of 70%, according to new research by Bernstein analysts.
Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
